The Democrats are trapped. Christine Blasey Ford is the new face of the Party.
Pending the outcome of the approaching vote on the confirmation of Judge Brett Kavanaugh, the Democrats find all their hopes pinned on her.
If she aces her hearing, they can see their way clear to November. But she probably won’t. Her recall of the events is not there. Her on-again off-again conduct leading up to the hearing is not bound to instill confidence in her.
And, she is no professional.
If she fails to hit a home run and if she leaves people scratching their heads, Kavanaugh will be confirmed and the Republicans will have shown up the Democrats as not ready for prime time.
Trump may be poised for four consecutive wins:
- A good FEMA response to Florence
- Release of the Bruce Ohr docs showing a DOJ/media conspiracy against Trump
- The Rosenstein admission that he wanted to tap Trump and oust him under the 25th Amendment
- Kavanaugh confirmation, especially after the Beasley attacks.
President Trump’s numbers dropped in early September after three or four months of relative stability.
His job approval in the RealClear Politics average fell and Republicans all over the nation saw the numbers in their own races drop in tandem.
Rising concerns over the possible overturn of Roe v. Wade, coupled with the Woodward book showing disarray in the Trump White House were likely responsible.
But, in the second and third weeks of September, he appears to have recovered. At this moment, he is about equal to his all time high.
This potential four-part victory could send him up to new heights, previously unreachable for him, just in time for the elections.
All the key Democratic incumbent senators are more or less tied. But being tied is bad news for Democratic incumbents in North Dakota, Missouri, Florida, Montana, and Indiana.
In most of these states, Dems have had vastly more TV advertising than Republicans for a much longer time period. To still be tied is not good.
The only Democrat takeaway looking good now is in Nevada where incumbent GOP Senator Heller is in a tie.
Dems are still ahead in Arizona, but not likely to stay there given the revelations that their candidate advocated going easy on adult men who see underage prostitutes. There is no real danger of GOP losses in the other takeaway races — Tennessee and Texas.
In the House, the generic Democratic advantage, having been as high as ten points is now back to six and, should Trump pull off some of these wins, might go lower.
My bet is still a GOP win in 2018 and the Kavanaugh imbroglio makes it just that much more likely.
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