Commentary

Trump Gains 4-Point Lead Over Biden with FL Likely Voters in Latest ABC/WaPo Poll

President Donald Trump is leading former Vice President Joe Biden in the crucial swing states of Florida and Arizona among likely voters, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post released on Wednesday.

Less than a week before the first presidential debate, Trump is in position to win both states, as he did in 2016, according to the poll.

Despite unrelenting and escalating attacks against Trump, the president is leading in Florida by 4 points among likely voters.

The president leads 51-47 percent among those polled in Florida who said they are likely to vote in November, just below the poll’s 4.5-point margin of error.

This is not good news for Biden, as a tightening of the polls throughout the last month now indicates the president’s message and record are resonating with those most likely to be casting ballots.

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Even among registered voters, a much larger group, the president is statistically tied with Biden, as Biden’s 1-point lead, 48-47 percent, is well within the poll’s 4-point margin of error.

Although Biden is leading with Hispanic voters in Florida, his support is nowhere near where Hilary Clinton was with the voting bloc in 2016.

“A challenge for Biden is his tepid 13-point lead among Hispanics in the state (using registered voters for an adequate sample size); Hillary Clinton won Florida Hispanics by 27 percentage points in 2016, yet narrowly lost the state,” the news release reporting the poll stated.

“Trump also does better than elsewhere in Florida among college-educated whites – though far better still with their non-college counterparts.”

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Likewise, in Arizona, where Democratic Senate nominee Mark Kelly is in a statistical dead heat with GOP Sen. Martha McSally, there is more good news for the president, according to the poll.

The poll reported that in Arizona, Trump leads Biden 49 percent to 48 percent among likely voters.

Among registered voters, Biden leads Trump by a margin of 49 to 47 percent.

In Arizona, the margin of error for both registered voters and likely voters was 4.5 percent, the release noted.

The poll noted:

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“In Arizona, the closeness of the contest is a different story [from Florida], given that the state has voted for a Democratic candidate for president just once since 1952, in 1996. There Biden leads by 61-34 percent among Hispanic registered voters, leads among independents and is stronger than in Florida with college graduates.

“Trump makes it back by way of an advantage in party loyalty; among Arizona likely voters, Republicans outnumber Democrats by 7 points. In both states, while Biden is strong among moderates, fewer liberals appear as likely voters compared with the 2016 exit polls. Conservatives account for nearly four in 10 voters; liberals, about two in 10.”

The support for Trump ultimately comes down to confidence of voters on the handling of the economy.

A majority of registered voters in both Florida and Arizona trust Trump on the economy over Biden.

The economy was the single biggest issue for voters in both states.

In Florida, Trump leads on the economy by double digits, with a margin of 52 percent to Biden’s 41 percent.

In Arizona, registered voters also trust Trump on the economy by double digits — 56 percent to Biden’s 41 percent.

Trump trails Biden with regard to the issue of the coronavirus pandemic in both states among registered voters, by 5 points in Florida and 4 points in Arizona.

Additionally, among registered voters, Trump leads in both states on the issue of “Crime and safety,” according to the release.

Trump leads on the issue by 4 points in both states among registered voters.

But registered voters will not decide either contest.

Likely voters are the key here, and Trump is ahead with them in both Arizona and Florida.

The poll should give Trump supporters cause for more enthusiasm, an area which Trump already leads in both states.

The poll noted:

“In a perhaps surprising result, Biden – in Florida – has shrunk his longstanding enthusiasm gap with Trump. Seventy-two percent of Trump’s supporters in the state say they’re very enthusiastic about their choice, as do 67 percent of Biden’s. In Arizona, by contrast, Biden has a 25-point enthusiasm deficit.”

Obviously, ABC News and The Washington Post are both outlets that are openly hostile toward the president, so the fact that a jointly sponsored poll contains so much good news for Trump bodes well for the president’s re-election.

The poll was also conducted before the three presidential debates and prior to the upcoming battle to fill the Supreme Court seat vacated Friday by the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

The fight to replace Ginsburg on the court with a conservative justice, whom Trump is expected to announce later this week, should further mobilize Trump’s conservative base between now and Nov. 3.

The ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone from Sept. 15 to Sept. 20 using landlines and cell phones, the news release stated.

In Florida, it surveyed 765 registered voters in Florida, 613 of them considered likely voters. In Arizona, it surveyed 701 registered voters, including 579 considered likely voters.

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Johnathan "Kipp" Jones has worked as a reporter, an editor and a producer in radio, television and digital media. He is a proud husband and father.
Johnathan "Kipp" Jones has worked as an editor and producer in radio and television. He is a proud husband and father.




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