Will an RFK Jr Third-Party Ticket Hurt Democrats or Republicans? Here's What the Experts Are Saying
Robert Kennedy Jr. is expected to shift gears in his 2024 White House bid in the coming week and announce a third-party campaign that could end up spoiling the hopes for the eventual Democratic or Republican nominee.
The environmental attorney and political scion could be next fall’s Ross Perot, who in 1992 arguably cost then-President George H. W. Bush his re-elected bid. In that election, Bill Clinton won with only 43 percent of the popular vote while the incumbent Bush lost with 37.4 percent of the vote.
Perot, a Texas billionaire, ran a campaign that resonated with voters who were concerned about the national debt and trade deals such as the North American Free Trade Agreement — people who were more likely to lean conservative.
He received the support of one-fifth of voters and arguably cost Bush a second term.
Who a Kennedy third-party run ultimately helps or hurts depends largely on who is talking. There is no shortage of people making bold predictions about Kennedy running a general election campaign against both major political parties.
Some are predicting such a scenario would hurt former President Donald Trump — the current favorite to win the Republican primary.
Others are predicting if Kennedy ran as a third-party spoiler that his candidacy would siphon votes from President Joe Biden, whose position appears weak because of the state of the economy and because of the ongoing crisis at the southern border.
What Kennedy Has Said
Kennedy has not committed to pulling out of the Democratic Party primary, but he has teased an announcement he has said will come next week.
On his X (formerly Twitter) account on Friday, Kennedy said he will deliver remarks at an event in Philadelphia on Oct. 9. He made it clear that he is not running to spoil anyone’s electoral chances, but that he has seen a “path to victory.”
“A lot of Americans who had previously given up any hope of real change would ever come through the American electoral process have begun to find new hope in my candidacy,” Kennedy told his followers.
He added, “I want to tell you now what I’ve come to understand after six months of campaigning: There is a path to victory. The hope we are feeling isn’t some kind of trick in the mind.”
Save the Date, Save the Country. #Kennedy24 pic.twitter.com/rSSs7flPKa
— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) September 29, 2023
Mediaite reported Kennedy will announce his third-party campaign.
The outlet reported, “2024 presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. plans to announce he will run as an independent on October 9 in Pennsylvania.”
“Kennedy’s campaign machine is now planning ‘attack ads’ against the Democratic National Committee in order to ‘pave the way’ for his announcement in Philadelphia about running as an independent, according to a text reviewed by Mediaite.”
A person described as close to Kennedy’s campaign told the outlet, “Bobby feels that the DNC is changing the rules to exclude his candidacy so an independent run is the only way to go.”
So, does a third-party run for Kennedy, who has endeared himself to many conservatives, help Democrats or Republicans?
It depends on who is answering the question.
A Third Party-Run Could Help Democrats Retain the White House
Naturally, The Washington Post’s Aaron Blake opined that Kennedy would serve to help Democrats in his analysis of potential third-party bid for the presidency.
Blake wrote: “There is no good polling that tests a Kennedy third-party bid. What we do know is that Republicans like Kennedy a heck of a lot more than Democrats do. That was true pretty shortly after he launched his campaign in April, and the gap has now grown into a chasm.”
Blake also cited a Quinnipiac University poll from early last month that showed Republicans are more likely than Democrats to view Kennedy favorably by a margin of 30 points.
The poll found Kennedy currently has the support of 11 percent of Democratic primary voters. Blake cited the singular poll as evidence that disaffected Republican voters will flock to Kennedy.
But Quinnipiac did not poll voters on who they would support head-to-head in a three-way match between Biden, Kennedy and Trump, so Blake’s analysis appears built on the assumption that merely viewing Kennedy favorably equates to conservative votes for him.
To many Republican voters, the candidate is viewed as a sane Democrat in an era in which his party has lost its way.
Other polls have shown Kennedy with more support among Democratic voters. A recent Messenger/HarrisX poll found Kennedy had the support of 16 percent of Democrats while a recent Rasmussen Reports poll showed Kennedy with 25 percent support in the party.
Both of those polls found Democrat Marianne Williamson, who is also challenging Biden for their party’s nomination, in the mid-single digits.
Both polls also found Biden failing to break 61 percent support in the primary — signifying that as many as 40 percent of Democrats are seeking an alternative to Biden.
How many of those voters would be willing to support a non-Democratic Party Kennedy White House run remains unclear. Per the Rasmussen survey, as many as one-third of Democrats would break from their party to vote for Kennedy over Biden.
Blake is not the only person making the assumption Kennedy could hypothetically help Democrats win next year by abandoning the party of his family:
It’s a tough one but I think it’s a bigger loss for Republicans. Lots of Republicans are sick of Trump and not very party-loyal and RFK is an acceptable alternative. Whereas Dems will vote for anyone with a D. See Fetterman.
— GayLumberjack (@gay_lumberjack) September 29, 2023
This has to only hurt trump at this point. Kennedy has ran straight up as a anti vax republican since he announced. I don’t see what kind of dem actually vote for him. https://t.co/EkZS1qA8Tf
— Cale Campbell (@calecampbell88) September 29, 2023
People are way too sanguine if they think this hurts Biden more than Trump. Kennedy is a DINO. He’s ideologically more a populist with some left leanings. This is a disaster scenario for Republicans. https://t.co/ieZQOaBBjK
— 🧀Cheese Wiz🧀 (@cmanuelhill) September 29, 2023
Meanwhile, others are forecasting such a bid will help the GOP.
A Kennedy Third-Party Bid Could Help Republicans Take the White House Next Fall
Bess Levin with far-left Vanity Fair began sounding the alarm hours after it was reported that Kennedy intended to mount a third-party challenge to Biden.
Levin wrote: “The idea of RFK Jr. running as an independent in the 2024 election is legitimately terrifying for a number of reasons, not the least of which being the fact that he could take votes away from Joe Biden and help Donald Trump — who incited a deadly insurrection the last time he lost — get re-elected.”
Newsweek’s James Bickerton, citing the aforementioned Rasmussen survey, opined that a Kennedy third-party bid would spell “disastrous defeat” for Biden.
“If the Democrats and Republicans nominate Biden and Trump respectively, and Kennedy runs as an independent, 33 percent of Democratic voters would ‘likely’ vote for him according to the poll, including 14 percent who would be ‘very likely’ to back him,” wrote Bickerton.
He added, “Had 33 percent of Biden’s voters backed a third-party candidate in 2020 he would have lost just under 27 million votes, easily handing Donald Trump a second term in the White House.”
Paul Rosenberg with far-left Salon, also shared anxiety about Biden’s prospects if he faces two general election challengers.
In a lengthy opinion piece published last Saturday, Rosenberg called on his fellow “leftists” to coalesce around an imperfect candidate in Biden and to denounce Kennedy.
“The far-left bromance with RFK Jr. is only helping Trump,” Rosenberg claimed before he asked, “Remember how left-wing purity worked out in the 1930s?”
Kennedy was portrayed as a malevolent and disruptive force by Rosenberg, who made a call to action for the most radical forces in the Democratic Party to remain loyal to the current president.
“Given the razor-thin margins of Joe Biden’s 2020 victories in Arizona, Wisconsin and Georgia — less than 43,000 votes in total — left-wing third-party votes or abstainers could easily provide Donald Trump the edge he needs to return to the White House and enact a neo-fascist agenda. One thing they definitely can’t do is win any real power for the left.”
Others online have also shared their opinion that an alternate route for Kennedy can only help the GOP:
Wealthy Republican donors know Trump can’t beat Biden head to head, so they’re pouring tons of money into third party candidates. A vote for No Labels or an independent Bobby Kennedy will put Trump back in the WH and end American Democracy. Be vigilant.
— Rob Reiner (@robreiner) September 30, 2023
You are sure, you’re just pretending to not be.
Kennedy is predicted to take 1/3 of Biden’s support.
He absolutely kills Democrats and helps Trump.
An election with Kennedy, Biden and Trump will be the biggest electoral landslide since Reagan/Mondale.
— JD Sharp (@imjdsharp) September 30, 2023
Good point.
I have seen one such Never Trumper saying precisely this on Twitter today (I think it was today).
Without RFK, this person would, IMO, have voted for Biden.
Kennedy gives them a non-Biden way to express their Trump dislike in a way that, ironically, likely helps… https://t.co/BcpHKOWxeZ
— Vince Manfeld (@AureliusStoic1) October 2, 2023
If this happens, this would hurt Biden infinitely more than Trump. And given the margin of error in recent presidential elections, it could be a decisive blow to the incumbent: https://t.co/EyN0r2cSRr
— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) September 29, 2023
This is why Kennedy is not a serious contender for the nomination, much less the presidency. You can be sure that a vote for a “Biden alternative,” whether that’s Kennedy, West, or a No Labels ghoul, is effectively a vote for Trump, autocracy, and fascism.https://t.co/jFwyGW9unz
— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) September 27, 2023
The Early Takeaway From Kennedy’s Expected Announcement
It is still unclear if Kennedy will mount a third-party bid, if Biden will make it to next fall as his party’s nominee, or if Trump will win the Republican Party’s nomination next year.
But the 2024 election is gearing up to be one of the most interesting contests in recent memory. No third-party candidate has ever mounted a successful White House bid.
While Kennedy has said he sees a way forward, the current consensus is that he can only spoil one party or another’s chances at winning next fall.
Who the 69-year-old would help or hurt ultimately depends on who you ask.
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