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Midterms Looking Bleaker for Democrats: Districts Biden Won by 10+ Points in Play

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The midterm elections in the House of Representatives are looking even worse for Democrats as November draws nearer.

The Democratic Party currently has a slim 220-208 advantage in the chamber.

The Cook Political Report just revised its House elections forecast, shifting 10 races into the Republicans’ column and moving just two to the Democrats’ side. Thirty-five seats now held by Democrats are rated toss-up or worse.

Further, Cook reported that districts President Joe Biden took by 10 points or more in 2020 are up for grabs.

A total of 208 seats are in the “lean red” or “solid red” categories versus 188 Democrat-held ones on the left side of the spectrum.

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Cook is predicting Republicans will gain 20 to 35 seats, meaning they would retake the House.


“Given that President Biden’s job approval is underwater in dozens of districts he carried in 2020, any Democrat sitting in a single-digit Biden seat (or a Trump seat) is at severe risk and even a few in seats Biden carried by 10 to 15 points could lose — particularly in ‘orphan’ states without competitive statewide races driving turnout,” Cook reported.

Generic ballot polling also spells trouble for Democrats.

Will Republicans take back the House in November?

Republicans currently enjoy a 1.9 percent advantage in the Real Clear Politics average of polls.

This may not seem too impressive, but Democrats are generally ahead.

David Winston, writing for Roll Call, crunched some numbers this month comparing where the Republicans stood going into the 2010 red wave midterm elections to where they stand now.

In those elections, conducted while Barack Obama was president, Republicans picked up 63 seats, ending up with a 242-193 advantage over Democrats.

“In 2010, by this point in the election year, voters’ confidence in Obama’s handling of the economy, the No. 1 issue, was heading south as voters said they had more confidence in Republicans to handle the economy by 5 points,” Winston wrote.

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GDP growth slowed in the second quarter of 2010 as the nation sought to emerge from the Great Recession.

A recent survey found that Biden is now in a worse place with voters regarding the economy, as the GDP shrank 1.4 percent during the first quarter of this year.

A Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted late last month showed Republicans have a 14-point lead — 50 to 36 percent — in handling the economy, with inflation a top issue.

Short of some major turnaround, Democrats will lose the House this fall — and likely by big numbers.

A version of this article originally appeared on Patriot Project.

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