Rasmussen continues to poll President Donald Trump’s support among black likely voters, and for the second week in a row, those numbers show that a game-changing political realignment could be underway.
Trump narrowly won the 2016 election but garnered only about 8 percent of the black vote, according to exit polling.
His opponent, Hillary Clinton, received 88 percent of the black vote in the race.
The notion has been that if Trump could increase his support in that community by even several points, he could poach away at a voting bloc which Democrats desperately need.
Rasmussen shows he’s overperforming expectations.
A Rasmussen Reports survey of black likely voters published last week found Trump’s approval rating started went from 25 percent on Monday, Oct. 19, to 46 percent on Friday, Oct. 30.
On Thursday, the pollster reported that nearly one-third of black likely voters said they would vote for Trump after being asked: “If the presidential election was held today, would you vote for Donald Trump or Joe Biden?”
The president started the week off with a robust 27 percent support from black likely voters, and by Thursday, it was at 31 percent.
According to the Washington Examiner, the polling for Thursday’s results was conducted between Monday and Wednesday among 1,500 people, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.
Oct 29, 2020 – Morning Reader Data Points:
“If the presidential election was held today, would you vote for Donald Trump or Joe Biden?”
National Daily Black Likely Voter % For @POTUS – October 26-29, 2020
Mon 10/26 – 27%
Tue 10/27 – 30%
Wed 10/28 – 30%
Thu 10/29 – 31%
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) October 29, 2020
Rasmussen is a credible pollster, but still, the numbers are hard to fathom.
But even others in the polling industry are finding that Trump is potentially much more popular with black voters than any other GOP candidate for president in recent memory.
As the statistical analysis website FiveThirtyEight conceded last week, “Trump is performing slightly better than last time among college-educated white voters, and he has gained among voters of color, especially Hispanic voters and younger Black voters.”
We don’t know how significant those gains are, but if the numbers reported by Rasmussen are even remotely correct, this could be the story of this election and of future elections.
Democrats count on the black vote to survive as a party, which is partially why they spend such a great deal of time attempting to paint their opponents as being racist.
They’ve used this strategy for decades, and with Trump, they’ve applied it with particular venom.
Problematically, some prominent black Americans seem to have grown tired of the lip service from Democrats.
Democratic policies have not helped black young people, and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s marquee accomplishment during 48 years in public life is the 1994 crime bill, which is almost universally loathed.
Still, Trump has received unlikely support from black cultural icons with an increased frequency down the stretch.
Just had a great meeting with @realdonaldtrump @potus besides what he’s done so far with criminal reform, the platinum plan is going to give the community real ownership. He listened to what we had to say today and assured he will and can get it done. ?? pic.twitter.com/Q9c5k1yMWf
— Lil Wayne WEEZY F (@LilTunechi) October 29, 2020
Rapper Waka Flocka Thinks Trump Is Better Than Obama and the Internet Is Losing It https://t.co/wgfUIorybJ
— Trump War Room – Text TRUMP to 88022 (@TrumpWarRoom) October 23, 2020
Famous Rapper Lil Pump Endorses Trump, Trashes ‘Sleepy Joe’ to His 17 Million Followers https://t.co/JjDifBH0JH
— Tea Party Patriots (@TPPatriots) October 30, 2020
This is of course after rapper Kanye West made the idea of supporting the president less taboo for young black men in 2018.
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 11, 2018
Another problem for Democrats who take black support for granted is that Trump can actually point to specific policies which have been targeted to make life easier for the country’s black communities.
Trump oversaw a record-low black unemployment rate earlier this year before Democrats tanked the economy with coronavirus shutdowns.
If Trump is indeed polling anywhere close to where Rasmussen has him, then it could signal a paradigm shift in all of politics.
For every turncoat former Republican supporting Biden, it seems a brave black culture icon or elected Democrat crosses the aisle for Trump.
Democrats count on black votes, and for years they’ve galvanized many of them to go out and vote by successfully portraying the GOP as a party which is not looking out for them.
If Democrats lose a large portion of the black vote, it’s back to the drawing board.
Not only would the party have to reassess its obsession with identity politics and racial division, it would also have to again run campaigns on policy, which would be a disaster.
We’ll hopefully know more this time next week.
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