Betting Odds That Musk Forms New Political Party Skyrocket
Elon Musk asked the public on Thursday if a new political party should be started, a proposition that has caught the attention of the betting markets.
After his public feud with President Donald Trump over the Big Beautiful Bill and the need to balance the budget, Musk posted a poll on X that may be indicating his new direction.
“Is it time to create a new political party in America that actually represents the 80% in the middle?” Musk asked.
Roughly 80.4 percent of respondents answered “Yes,” and 19.6 percent answered “No,” with the poll receiving a volume of more than 5.6 million votes.
Is it time to create a new political party in America that actually represents the 80% in the middle?
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 5, 2025
Musk concluded from the results that “the people have spoken.”
“A new political party is needed in America to represent the 80% in the middle! And exactly 80% of people agree,” he said. “This is fate.”
The billionaire later floated the name “The America Party.”
The America Party https://t.co/hO5S8Kjb5O
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 6, 2025
Some have been using Polymarket to predict whether President Donald Trump holds a news conference with Elon Musk to mark the end of the Tesla CEO’s tenure as a special government employee overseeing the U.S. DOGE Service on Friday May 30, 2025 in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington.Musk will start the new coalition.
The odds that Musk will create a new political party by June 30 are currently 13 percent.
But the chances of him starting a party by the end of the year are a more robust 30 percent.
BREAKING: Odds of Elon Musk creating a new political party by the end of the year are approximately 1 in 3, per Polymarket.” pic.twitter.com/8Otu56jZGi
— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) June 5, 2025
Although a sizable minority of the betting market may be convinced, there are plenty of both skeptics and supporters of his possible plan.
“That’s one way to throw away your money because there’s no way that’s happening,” one X user said.
“If there’s one person who could potentially create a 3rd party & attract a majority of people to it, it’s Elon,” another offered.
“Odds are zero when he and Trump makeup,” a third predicted.
“The problem is, a new party never gets enough folks to make a difference. They just take away from republicans or Dems and help one party or the other,” another warned.
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