Dick Morris: The Tide Is Growing - Did Republicans Just Clinch the Senate?
The Republicans may have basically clinched a majority in the Senate in the aftermath of Dr. Mehmet Oz’s total wipeout of John Fetterman in this week’s Pennsylvania Senate debate.
The GOP had to defend its 50 seats this cycle. The only three in doubt were Ohio, North Carolina and, of course, Pennsylvania. But Republican J.D. Vance now sports a 4-point lead in Ohio after leading most of the race. And Ted Budd, the Republican candidate in North Carolina, has led by 4 in each of the last four surveys.
That brings us to Pennsylvania, where Oz has been locked in a titanic battle with Fetterman. But in their debate, Oz ran rings around his sick, flawed and ultra-liberal opponent.
The Democrats, arrogant enough to think that they could prop up a senile Joe Biden, now have found that they can’t perform their skills as ventriloquists and taxidermists to make Fetterman seem alive, to say nothing of competitive. It is hard to imagine anyone voting for him.
But winning these seats just brings the Republicans back to a 50-50 Senate where Vice President Kamala Harris can break the tie.
The best Republican takeaway opportunity is in Nevada, where former Republican state Attorney General Adam Laxalt is now 2 points ahead of Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto. In case Laxalt doesn’t come through, there is Republican Herschel Walker challenging Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock in Georgia.
Walker, who has been through hellfire in Democratic attack ads about his paying for his girlfriend’s abortion, was 2 points behind Warnock in the Insider Advantage survey of Oct. 16. After an unexpectedly strong debate performance, Walker pulled into a 46-46 tie with Warnock in the Landmark poll of Oct. 17. Now, in the Trafalgar poll of Oct. 21 to 23, he shows a 49-47 lead.
But beyond the oscillations in the Georgia surveys lies the fact that it is very unlikely that either candidate can win a majority. That will necessitate a runoff in January. The undecided vote in Trafalgar’s survey is 75 percent white and 17 percent black. Since Walker leads among whites with more than 60 percent of the vote (and gets 20 percent of blacks), the runoff edge would seem to be Walker’s.
If Republicans can win Nevada and Georgia, they will have a 52-seat Senate majority.
Then there is Arizona, where Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly leads challenger Blake Masters by 2 points. But Masters could catch up, giving Republicans a 53rd seat.
New Hampshire, where Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan won by only 1,000 votes last time, could also provide the 53rd seat. Hassan was 7 ahead on Oct. 6 (Fabrizio-Anzalone) and 3 ahead on Oct. 19 (Emerson) and, just recently, saw her lead dwindle to only 1 ahead of Republican Don Bolduc (Insider Advantage) on Oct. 23.
Bolduc, a MAGA Republican, is out of favor among the GOP Senate leadership, and they have cut off his funding. Despite this — or because of it? — Bolduc has come on strong.
Then there are three outlier blue states that could come in if a real red wave develops.
In Connecticut, Republican Leora Levy trailed Democratic Sen. Dick Blumenthal by only 5 points in the Connecticut Examiner poll of Oct. 13. Since then, pro-Democratic survey organizations Quinnipiac and Emerson have shown Blumenthal 13 and 15 ahead. But I don’t buy it.
In Colorado, Republican Joe O’Dea trailed Democratic Sen. Michael Bennett by only 6 points on Oct. 6 (Marist) and by 9 in a simultaneous DFP survey. Donald Trump has openly attacked O’Dea, a pro-abortion maverick, but in Colorado that might help the Republican candidate.
Finally, in Washington state, Republican Tiffany Smiley trailed Democratic Sen. Patty Murray by 8 on Oct. 19.
As the Republican tide grows, these seats are within reach.
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