Historically Accurate Election Model Shows Trump Walloping 2020 Dem Even Worse Than He Beat Hillary in 2016
Asked about her age during the fourth Democratic debate in Ohio on Tuesday night — she would be 71 upon entering her first term, the oldest incoming president ever — Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren brushed it aside with a subtle dig at Donald Trump’s chances of remaining in office until the election.
“I will outwork, outorganize, and outlast anyone else and that includes Donald Trump, [Vice President] Mike Pence, or whoever the Republicans get stuck with,” Warren said, according to The Hill.
Ho, ho, ho. See, she means Trump’s going to get impeached and removed — or maybe lose in the primary or get some sort of McDonald’s-induced disease or whatever. Much like every other Democrat, Warren’s pretty confident she can run up the score on The Donald.
On the contrary, says a historically accurate election model. Apparently, President Trump might have an easier time of it in 2020 than he did in 2016.
“President Donald Trump looks likely to cruise to reelection next year under three different economic models Moody’s Analytics employed to gauge the 2020 race,” CNBC reported Tuesday.
“Barring anything unusual happening, the president’s Electoral College victory could easily surpass his 2016 win over Democrat Hillary Clinton, which came by a 304-227 count.”
The models showed Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes and as many as 351. Even the low number, for those of you who went through Common Core civics, would be more than the 270 needed for him to win.
The Moody’s projection looks at several variables, including the stock market, unemployment and consumers’ estimation of their own financial standing.
Under the final model, Trump would have the strongest chance of re-election, with 351 electoral votes to the Democrats getting 187.
The unemployment model would still be high, given that unemployment itself is at a 50-year low. Under that model, the projection would be 332 to 206.
The stock market model only has Trump getting 289 electoral votes to Democrats’ 249.
“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said.
He’s the co-author, along with Dan White and Bernard Yaros, of the report. He said that the election, like most others, will be “about turnout.” Assuming average turnout, Trump does well. With an energized Democrat base and an apathetic Republican one, the models begin looking less favorable.
“Our ‘pocketbook’ model is the most economically driven of the three. If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” Moody’s report read.
“This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election.”
It also shows the importance of the stock market, which could tip the scales toward a Democrat if there was a 12 percent correction.
And despite the fact that President Trump’s approval ratings have always been low, they’ve been pretty consistently in that range. That’s actually a positive for Trump, Moody’s says.
“The results might come as a surprise given Trump’s consistently low favorability ratings — 40% in the latest Gallup poll — and as most head-to-head matchups against Democrats show the president losing,” CNBC reported.
“However, the report said that Trump’s relatively stable ratings help provide a good benchmark for how he will do once election time comes.”
The paper also mentions the importance of Pennsylvania — just a few counties could flip the entire state — and other challenges the president might face. And, in truth, Trump’s unlike any other president or major-party nominee we’ve seen previously.
But then again, Moody’s predictions have only been wrong once since they began in 1980. That time? In 2016, when they predicted Hillary Clinton would win a narrow victory. They ended up blaming that loss on “unexpected turnout patterns.”
So, no, Sen. Warren. Mike Pence won’t be the president in November of 2020. Impeachment may get past the House but, barring some explosive revelations, it’ll end up dying in the Senate.
Despite the polling matchups, this won’t be a cakewalk for you or any other Democrat candidate. In fact, whoever you guys nominate could, if history holds, end up getting outworked, outorganized, and outlasted by Trump in rather spectacular style.
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