New Poll Shows Gavin Newsom Could Be in Trouble as Recall Vote Nears


A newly released poll shows that Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is in a dead heat as Californians get ready to cast their ballots in the state’s recall election next month.

The Emerson College poll found that 48 percent of registered voters were against the recall and 46 percent were for it. Six percent were undecided.

“I will vote to not recall,” Jorge Duran said, according to KPIX-TV. “I think it’s unfair. It has no basis.”

Recall supporter Brian Carroll said, “I think it needs to happen.”

“Oh, totally. Get rid of him,” he added.

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The poll, conducted via cellphone and online from July 30 to Aug. 1, surveyed 1,000 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Forty-six candidates are in the race to replace Newsom, including Republican state Assemblyman Kevin Kiley, former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, businessman John Cox, conservative radio talk show host Larry Elder and former Olympian Caitlyn Jenner.

The Emerson poll found Elder in the lead among those candidates with 23 percent.

“Getting close. Forty-two days until Election Day,” Contra Costa Clerk-Recorder Debi Cooper told KPIX.

Do you think Newsom should be recalled?

“[The ballots will] be going out on the 16th. Maybe a day or two earlier.”

Ballots will be mailed to every registered voter.

Newsom’s heavy-handed approach to the coronavirus pandemic has been listed as one of the many reasons opponents are trying to recall the Democratic governor.

“As it turns out, COVID is re-emerging,” California political strategist Darry Sragow said, according to KPIX. “And now the fact is the governor is going to have to handle it in a way that reassures these Democratic voters.”

The winner of the recall election will still have to run for re-election next year.

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“How close the recall turns out to be depends on exactly one thing and only one thing,” Sragow said.

“And that is whether Democrats take the time to vote.”

The candidates will meet Wednesday for a debate at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum.

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Erin Coates was an editor for The Western Journal for over two years before becoming a news writer. A University of Oregon graduate, Erin has conducted research in data journalism and contributed to various publications as a writer and editor.
Erin Coates was an editor for The Western Journal for over two years before becoming a news writer. She grew up in San Diego, California, proceeding to attend the University of Oregon and graduate with honors holding a degree in journalism. During her time in Oregon, Erin was an associate editor for Ethos Magazine and a freelance writer for Eugene Magazine. She has conducted research in data journalism, which has been published in the book “Data Journalism: Past, Present and Future.” Erin is an avid runner with a heart for encouraging young girls and has served as a coach for the organization Girls on the Run. As a writer and editor, Erin strives to promote social dialogue and tell the story of those around her.
Tucson, Arizona
Graduated with Honors
Bachelor of Arts in Journalism, University of Oregon
Books Written
Contributor for Data Journalism: Past, Present and Future
Prescott, Arizona
Languages Spoken
English, French
Topics of Expertise
Politics, Health, Entertainment, Faith