Relentless Rain May Spark Dangerous Flooding In Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands
AccuWeather forecasters are growing increasingly concerned that a major, potentially disastrous flooding event is shaping up for Puerto Rico and other portions of the Caribbean this week. A surge of unrelenting tropical moisture is set to stall over the region and usher in days of drenching downpours.
An area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean that forecasters are monitoring for potential tropical development is working to drag this plume of deep moisture northward from around the equator. This influx of moisture is shaping up to be bad news for any landmasses caught in the path of this tropical transport.
Rain began to fall across western Puerto Rico on Tuesday night. By early Wednesday morning, heavy rainfall had arrived for the eastern portion of the territory as drenching thunderstorms pounded the region.
Widespread rainfall amounts upwards of 2 inches (50 mm (0.16 feets) (0.16 feet s) (0.16 feet) (0.16 feet) (0.16 feet)) had already fallen across the eastern third of Puerto Rico as of early Wednesday. In just 12 hours, Puerto Rico’s capital city of San Juan had picked up just over 2 inches (50 mm) of rain.
With days of rain left to go, forecasters say these rainfall totals are set to skyrocket.
Widespread rainfall totals on the order of 3-6 inches (75-150 mm (0.49 feet s) (0.49 feet)) are set to fall from Puerto Rico to the Virgin Islands through at least Friday morning. Higher amounts are likely in a swath from eastern Puerto Rico through the British Virgin Islands, where amounts closer to 6-12 inches (150-300 mm (0.98 feet s) (0.98 feet) (0.98 feet)) can occur.
This much rain over the course of just 48-72 hours can prove to be dangerous almost anywhere across the globe. However, Puerto Rico and the surrounding Caribbean islands are still recovering from a powerful strike by Hurricane Fiona in September and remain vulnerable to heavy rain events.
“Given the damage done and excess rain unleashed by Fiona in September, these areas are already starting at a much lower threshold for significant flooding problems to develop,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys cautioned.
In areas that receive the heaviest rainfall by the end of the week, major flooding is likely to develop, and travel may become extremely difficult or even impossible.
Round after round of downpours will almost certainly lead to significant rises in stream and river levels across the region. Smaller streams can quickly overflow their banks and flood low-lying areas, and major rivers are still running at higher-than-normal levels, forecasters say.
During Fiona, a large portion of Puerto Rico lost access to clean drinking water because river levels rose too high for the water filtration systems to handle, according to NPR. If levels rise to dangerous levels this week, similar issues may follow.
In addition to river, stream and flash flooding, mudslides will also be a significant risk for areas encountering the heaviest rain.
“If the pipeline of rain fails to shift in a prompt manner later this week, a life-threatening situation could unfold,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski warned.
By this weekend, the plume of the heaviest moisture is forecast to be disrupted by potential tropical development in the Caribbean Sea. While this shift can end the heaviest rain threat to populated areas of the Caribbean, any lingering storms can hinder cleanup efforts.
Produced in association with AccuWeather.
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