RFK Jr. or Joe Manchin Could Be Seduced to Make Campaign Moves Based on Revealing New Voter Poll
According to a recent Quinnipiac poll released last week, 47 percent of American voters are open to voting for a third-party presidential candidate in the 2024 presidential election.
The idea of another round of Democrat Joe Biden vs. Republican Donald Trump seems to have a lot of people looking for alternatives.
Independent voters often decide presidential elections, and nearly two-thirds of them are open to a third-party candidate, according to the poll.
The survey “is a vivid indication that for many voters, the status quo is a no-go,” Quinnipiac said.
Numbers like these might seduce people such as maverick Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and moderate Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia to consider a third-party run for the White House.
If the numbers hold, one of them could play the part of spoiler for either Biden or Trump, assuming those two men win their party primaries. And although a third-party candidate winning the presidency is highly unlikely, it isn’t impossible.
While 47 percent of respondents in the Quinnipiac poll said they would consider supporting a third-party candidate in 2024, another 47 percent also indicated they would not.
Sixty-four percent of independents said they would consider voting for a third-party candidate. Democrats were less enthused with only 35 percent indicating they would consider a third-party candidate. Republicans came in at 38 percent.
A majority from both parties — 57 percent of Republicans and 61 percent of Democrats — indicated they are not open to a third-party candidate in the 2024 presidential election.
Quinnipiac surveyed 2,065 U.S. adults, including 1,809 self-identified registered voters, from July 13 to 17. The poll has margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percent.
“The survey included 727 Republican and Republican-leaning voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points and 763 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points,” the pollster said.
What’s it all mean? It means there are a lot of “ifs.”
For instance, how many third-party candidates might run?
Left-wing activist and philosopher Cornel West announced last month that he’s running a third-party campaign.
I am running for truth and justice as a presidential candidate for the People’s Party to reintroduce America to the best of itself – fighting to end poverty, mass incarceration, ending wars and ecological collapse, guaranteeing housing, health care, education and living wages for… pic.twitter.com/u3NYGUbG1S
— Cornel West (@CornelWest) June 5, 2023
West initially declared himself to be a candidate of the People’s Party but later said he’d also pursue the Green Party’s nomination. Some Democrats are worried that his candidacy could hurt Biden.
Manchin and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, a Republican, have hinted they might run on a third-party “No Labels” ticket in 2024, according to NBC News.
The senator has frequently refused to follow Democrat marching orders, much to the ire of the party’s progressive wing. Meanwhile, Huntsman — a former U.S. ambassador to Russia, China and Singapore — ran for the GOP presidential nomination in 2012 president.
It appears the two men would hope to appeal to moderate voters seeking common ground.
RFK Jr.’s campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination has gained some traction: According to the Quinnipiac poll, he had the support of 14 percent of those surveyed.
2024 National Democratic Primary:
Joe Biden 71% (+57)
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 14%
Marianne Williamson 7%.@QuinnipiacPoll, 763 RV, 7/13-17https://t.co/0ySW39VCCM
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) July 19, 2023
That’s not enough to win the Democratic race, but if he teamed up with a third-party candidate, it would pose a significant threat to the Biden campaign in the general election.
Trump has a commanding lead on the Republican side, though it is early and there are any number of things — such as a stream of criminal indictments — that could derail him.
2024 National Republican Primary:
Trump 54% (+29)
DeSantis 25%
Haley 4%
Pence 4%
Scott 3%
Christie 3%
Ramaswamy 2%
Hutchinson 0%
Elder 0%
Burgum 0%
Suarez 0%
Hurd 0%.@QuinnipiacPoll, 727 RV, 7/13-17https://t.co/0ySW39VCCM
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) July 19, 2023
If more third-party candidates jump on board, a whole mess of people will be running for president in 2024.
Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison doesn’t like that prospect, according to The Hill. Of West’s run, he said, “This is not the time in order to experiment. This is not the time to play around on the margins.”
“What we see is a lot of folks who want to be relevant and try to be relevant in these elections and not looking at the big picture,” Harrison continued. “We got to re-elect Joe Biden.”
Biden supporters also worry that RFK Jr. and No Labels could shift the results of the 2024 election in favor of the GOP, according to a separate article in The Hill.
Whatever the case, Democrats sense that Biden is vulnerable — they’d have to be blind not to.
The mounting evidence that the president knew about and participated in a pay-for-play political scheme with his son Hunter — piled on top of a struggling economy and signs of Biden’s lack of mental acuity on an increasingly dangerous world stage — have them worried.
The Quinnipiac poll found only 40 percent of registered voters view him favorably.
Biden’s presidency is a failure. That’s dangerous for the U.S. and the world.
Those considering a third-party run for president in 2024 know they could undermine Biden. They also might be willing to bet that voters are tired of the drama that follows Trump around like a thunderhead.
We will learn over the next 468 days how all of that will play out.
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